I almost cancelled everything I had planned for today, thanks to the dire weather forecasts that began to appear yesterday. Freezing rain, freezing drizzle, wintry mix, snow turned to ice — you get the idea No matter what you call the stuff it wasn’t going to be good to drive on. And everything I needed and wanted to do today involved driving.
But I woke this morning to cloudy skies and no precipitation and thought “Those weather people have done it again. I should know better.” A quick peek at the revised hourly forecast showed that all my favorite climate prognosticators had snuck back onto the internet and revised their predictions overnight. The morning was to be no worse than cloudy, and I now had more like a fifty percent chance of either rain or freezing rain by mid afternoon.
To me, this seemed a little like the prophets who predict the end of the world and then revise the date of the apocalypse when it fails to materialize on time. The second time around It just isn’t as scary. So I grabbed my stuff and an extra jacket just in case and headed out to do the things that needed doing.
The morning went well and I was pretty proud of myself for not being intimidated, but by noon it began to change. I charged ahead even though it was in the mid thirties and raining. By mid afternoon we had dropped into the twenties and whatever you chose to call the gunk falling from the sky, there was no question that it was starting to coat the road in a most unfortunate way.
I cursed the entire weather forecasting profession and my reaction to it and canned my last two errands and headed for home. I slid into the ditch as I turned into my subdivision and then I took a minute to reflect on the wisdom of ignoring a well informed forecast.
In my novels, even people who have super powers that enable them to see the future do not see absolute certainties. Why should I expect the real-life non-prescient dweebs who extrapolate current climate conditions to be infallible? They give an educated guess, no more. The closer the event gets, the more educated the guess is. And the more it should be considered.
So next time I’ll listen to that updated forecast. At least, that’s what I promised myself as I barely caught the rail as I slid onto my front porch.